What should I do?--a study about conflicting and ambiguous warning messages

Warnings are intended to reduce accidents caused by hazards. Behavioral compliance is the most important measure of warning effectiveness. However, in result of diverse circumstances (e.g., distraction, misuse, negligence), conflicting or ambiguous safety messages can be perceived. Since these are recurrent and can result in wrong behaviors encompassing severe consequences, such cases should be studied for safety purposes. We report findings on the participants' compliant behavior when performing a work-related task, while immersed in a virtual environment, and investigate the effect of conflicting messages on compliance with warnings. Two warnings (one regular and one with an appended out-of-order sign) and two types of signs (static and dynamic) were considered. The warning with the out-of-order sign configures the case of potentially conflicting messages. The gender effect was also investigated. The participants' behavior was assessed regarding to pushing a button as directed by the warnings. In the "out-of-order" warning, compliance was higher in the dynamic situation (53.3%) than in the static one (3.3%). Comparing with the non-conflicting warning, compliance was higher for both situations (static: 76.7%; dynamic: 100%). Women complied more than men. Although these results have limitations in their generalization, they are nonetheless relevant and deserve to be studied further.     

A conceptual framework for the assessment of multiple functions of agro-ecosystems: A case study of Trás-os-Montes olive groves

Multifunctionality in agriculture has received a lot of attention the last decade from researchers and policy-makers alike, perhaps most notably evidenced by the important changes made to the EU's Common Agricultural Policy. While the concept has been embraced by environmentalists envisioning positive impulses for decoupling and a range of local stakeholders recognizing implicit marketing opportunities involved, it has also been criticized as a mere argument in favour of disguised protectionism. Problematic in this discussion is the lack of an operationalising framework for the assessment of multiple functions. In this paper, we discuss such a framework and the role it can play in the decision-making process. Focusing on a case study about olive farming on sloping and mountainous land in northeastern Portugal, the contribution discusses methods for studying multiple functions of agro-ecosystems. While function assessment is presented from a research perspective, its relevance for stakeholders is also stressed here. By using the metaphor of a house, the method could appeal to a wide range of actors. In the case study, we conclude that olive groves on sloping and mountainous land particularly fall short in supplying ecological functions. They do however contribute significantly to the local economy, generate employment and perform an important role in maintaining the cultural landscape and identity, and are thus vital to regional development and to stop outmigration of the population. Policy-makers could use the function assessment tool to design effective cross-compliance rules and relevant agro-environmental measures to reinforce ecological and social functions, and to communicate ideas to other stakeholders. As such, it provides an extension of public debate and can reinforce decision-making by visualizing trends, development alternatives or scenarios. The role of research in this method is to facilitate dialogue between stakeholder groups and to feed the process with relevant indicators.     

The Portuguese Disinflation Process: Analysis of Some Costs and Benefits

This study aims to analyse the Portuguese economic policy of disinflation through a nominal stabilization policy of the Portuguese escudo. We study the pegging of the Portuguese escudo to the deutschmark knowing the reputation of the Bundesbank for its anti-inflationary record. The acceptance of German monetary policy allowed the Portuguese economy to achieve its primary goal of price stability. The nominal stability policy of the escudo may serve as an example for other small economies that may be presently involved in the European integration process such as the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia.

Webster‐Stratton Incredible Years Basic Parent Programme (IY) in child care placements: residential staff carers' satisfaction results

The aim of the present study was to investigate residential child care staff satisfaction with their involvement in the Webster‐Stratton Incredible Years Basic Parent Programme (IY). In an exploratory, not randomized study, 27 professionals from two different short‐term Portuguese residential child care centres (IG1, n = 15; IG2; n = 12) completed weekly IY evaluations and an overall satisfaction questionnaire at the end of their participation in the IY intervention. The weekly level of satisfaction was assessed with regard to each of the programme's components (content, DVDs, group leaders, group discussion). At the last session, they filled out a questionnaire aimed to evaluate the levels of satisfaction regarding the programme overall, the teaching format, the group leader(s) and the usefulness of specific educational techniques they learned. Data indicated that residential staff carers were highly satisfied with the weekly sessions and with the overall usefulness of the intervention programme. Results are discussed in terms of implications and future research directions.     

A probabilistic epidemiological model for infectious diseases: The case of COVID-19 at global-level

This study has developed a probabilistic epidemiological model a few weeks after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic (based on the little data available at that time). The aim was to assess relative risks for future scenarios and evaluate the effectiveness of different management actions for 1 year ahead. We quantified, categorized, and ranked the risks for scenarios such as business as usual, and moderate and strong mitigation. We estimated that, in the absence of interventions, COVID-19 would have a 100% risk of explosion (i.e., more than 25% infections in the world population) and 34% (2.6 billion) of the world population would have been infected until the end of simulation. We analyzed the suitability of model scenarios by comparing actual values against estimated values for the first 6 weeks of the simulation period. The results proved to be more suitable with a business-as-usual scenario in Asia and moderate mitigation in the other continents. If everything went on like this, we would have 55% risk of explosion and 22% (1.7 billion) of the world population would have been infected. Strong mitigation actions in all continents could reduce these numbers to, 7% and 3% (223 million), respectively. Although the results were based on the data available in March 2020, both the model and probabilistic approach proved to be practicable and could be a basis for risk assessment in future pandemic episodes with unknown virus, especially in the early stages, when data and literature are scarce.